This analysis is the third in a series of analysis following the publication of our report entitled ‘Challenges & Consequence of Climate Change for Political Stability in the Balkans” (released 5th April 2018).  Our analysis today provides a summary of the short and long-term political risk scenarios detailed in the Report.


  • The levels of democratic governance in the Balkans will determine the capabilities of each independent state to reduce the negative impact climate change is perceived to have on the socio-economic situation of their populations. This will inevitably determine which scenario comes into fruition.
  • Given the current levels of preparedness in the Balkans to address the environmental impact associated with Climate Change – resulting in socio-economic constraints – it is anticipated that technological modernisation needed to cope with these changes will present new opportunities for investment.