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This piece disentangles the economic and political consequences of the investment agreement between Serbia and the UAE. Recent cooperation highlights opacity and concerns regarding questionable business practices.
The AKP has bet on gold exploitation and commercialization to avoid an oncoming banking crisis. Turkey currently is the 4th world consumer of gold.
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Vučić may become victim to his popularity, and of his struggle to balance relations between East and West. He himself is torn between authoritarian and democratic tendencies.
Throughout 2017 Erdoğan will continue to accumulate his own powers vis-à-vis Turkey. The most relevant political event could very realistically be a new Constitution and a Presidential system.
The TMSF is being used by the Government to facilitate politically motivated asset seizures in Turkey. It is being used to further empower the AKP.
Political purges in Turkey are affecting the credibility of the Turkish market. These purges have targeted CEO’s of holdings with alleged links to the Gülen movement.
President Erdoğan is targeting private businesses with connections to the Gülen movement. This realignment of elite interests is being packaged as part of a purge against alleged terrorist threats.
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The failed coup against President Erdoğan and his administration is going to usher in a period of significant power consolidation by the President.
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Investors to Turkey should be aware that the domestic environment is increasingly prone to political risk, with a definite shift towards crony-patronage.
Turkey has a strategic weakness in energy reserves, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices. There is a substantial political incentive for Turkey to develop its energy policy in the face of regional instability.
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Over the past year, political and economic developments in Turkey have reflected the country’s dynamic domestic environment. There is no doubt that in 2016, Erdogan will consolidate his position.