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Nigeria has become one of Turkey’s most important providers of liquid natural gas (LNG), and with the LNG industry in both countries gaining increasing prominence, LNG trade between the two is likely to continue into the foreseeable future.
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Turkish-Serbian business relations are set to enter a new era, with the Turkish President noting his commitment to direct more private Turkish investment to Serbia. There are indications that this is another example of Erdogan dovetailing Turkey’s minor foreign policy with securing commercial opportunities for his loyalists.
Serbia’s overblown and unreformed public sector, almost completely under informal political control, produces a staggering amount of debt, and represents a key instrument of social and political manipulation. While the structure of debt is often complex, its background is relatively simple: clientelism and corruption - too much political influence and too little reform.
Despite on-going reforms in the Serbian energy sector, including reforms at state-owned EPS, the political situation in Serbia does not herald the emergence of a more transparent and liberalised energy market. EPS remains a resource distribution tool, with indications that President Vučić will likely seek to exert more control over it.
Greece is toying with expanding its ties to China, Turkey and Russia whilst its relations with the EU falter. In addition to intelligence of various ‘unofficial’ meetings being held between the leadership of these countries; growing ties are evident in the identity of those taking part in Greece’s ‘golden visa’ scheme.
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With the growing personalisation of politics in Turkey, embodied in President Erdoğan, a patron-client environment is emerging in the private sector. The President has secured a new loyal group of businessmen in his circle – in exchange for preferential access to state resources, these private sector players support Erdoğan and the AKP in any form required.
Recent purges in Turkish academia are likely to have a devastating impact on society in generally, but also on industry as Erdogan’s purges threatens to create an intellectual desert that will inadvertently diminish the quality of the country’s innovative workforce.
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Greece is under pressure to embark on a privatisation programme to help feed financial stability. Despite rhetoric that the country is committed to a privatisation programme, the Greek government is showing signs of hesitation. With investment opportunities to be had, risks still abound for those that do not have the time or patience to navigate negotiations.
Reconstruction in Turkey and northern Syria are becoming potential investment opportunities for the AKP-controlled public housing institution, TOKİ. These construction projects, that could be partly financed by the EU, will also inevitably benefit Erdogan’s ‘constructocracy’.
The Port of Constanta is currently under a legal battle that may impact privatisation prospects, and paralyze future investment opportunities. There are indications that a new law is being pushed through to the financial benefit of specific MPs.
The creation of a SWF in Turkey will inevitably have an impact on the Turkish economy; but is most likely to be used to reinforce the informal elite networks surrounding Erdoğan.
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Public enterprises represent a large part of the Serbian economy, and a vital instrument of informal power in the hands of political elite. Amongst other things, it has been used to instil and reward loyalty among officials and apparatchiks.