The failure of the Cyprus peace talks will have a direct impact on the development of the country’s gas market. Given the geographic location of Cyprus, and ongoing territorial disputes, its politics are colouring commercial negotiations in the gas sector, including those surrounding the Israeli Leviathan basin. This is inevitably creating an insecure investment environment.
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Turkish-Serbian business relations are set to enter a new era, with the Turkish President noting his commitment to direct more private Turkish investment to Serbia. There are indications that this is another example of Erdogan dovetailing Turkey’s minor foreign policy with securing commercial opportunities for his loyalists.
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With the growing personalisation of politics in Turkey, embodied in President Erdoğan, a patron-client environment is emerging in the private sector. The President has secured a new loyal group of businessmen in his circle – in exchange for preferential access to state resources, these private sector players support Erdoğan and the AKP in any form required.
Recent purges in Turkish academia are likely to have a devastating impact on society in generally, but also on industry as Erdogan’s purges threatens to create an intellectual desert that will inadvertently diminish the quality of the country’s innovative workforce.
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Developments in Turkey and Lebanon could impact on the illicit narcotics routes that go to Western Europe. In both cases, the weakening of the security state apparatus will contribute to the expansion of the illicit economic interests of drug trafficking networks.
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Nationalism still dominates political discourse in much of the Balkans, and is a major source of political instability. Going hand in hand with illiberal and authoritarian tendencies, nationalism is being used for utilitarian political purposes and appears to be a vehicle for the Kremlin’s low-cost drive to destabilise the EU's projects and interests in the region.
Purges in Turkey’s law enforcement structures have undermined the ability of the state to counter the growing drug trafficking problem. This is having an impact on political stability as it feeds terrorism and overall police ineffectiveness.
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The energy sector in Turkey not only plays a vital economic role, but it is also a tool for political interests. The overwhelming influence of the state in this sector has allowed the government to utilise it to reinforce the loyalty of its surrounding informal networks.
Although the Communist Turkish terrorist group, DHKP-C, had its height in the 1990s, it has reappeared on Turkey’s national security scene as an actor growing in prominence. Its political loyalty to Syria’s Al-Assad has secured the group both military training and financing.
The newly established Somali-Turkish relations is providing Erdoğan and his inner circle with a source of lucrative returns, which could soon be increased.
The Port of Constanta is currently under a legal battle that may impact privatisation prospects, and paralyze future investment opportunities. There are indications that a new law is being pushed through to the financial benefit of specific MPs.
The creation of a SWF in Turkey will inevitably have an impact on the Turkish economy; but is most likely to be used to reinforce the informal elite networks surrounding Erdoğan.
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