Opacity surrounding how EU agricultural funds are distribiuted in Bulgaria is feeding allegations that state officials in the country’s main agriculture state agency and in the Ministry of Agriculture personally benefit from their position. It is believed that these officials distribute EU funds to loyal landowners in exchange for a de facto kick-back.
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Developments in Turkey and Lebanon could impact on the illicit narcotics routes that go to Western Europe. In both cases, the weakening of the security state apparatus will contribute to the expansion of the illicit economic interests of drug trafficking networks.
Purges in Turkey’s law enforcement structures have undermined the ability of the state to counter the growing drug trafficking problem. This is having an impact on political stability as it feeds terrorism and overall police ineffectiveness.
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The energy sector in Turkey not only plays a vital economic role, but it is also a tool for political interests. The overwhelming influence of the state in this sector has allowed the government to utilise it to reinforce the loyalty of its surrounding informal networks.
Although the Communist Turkish terrorist group, DHKP-C, had its height in the 1990s, it has reappeared on Turkey’s national security scene as an actor growing in prominence. Its political loyalty to Syria’s Al-Assad has secured the group both military training and financing.
Throughout 2017 Erdoğan will continue to accumulate his own powers vis-à-vis Turkey. The most relevant political event could very realistically be a new Constitution and a Presidential system.
On a visit to the U.S., Erdogan accuses US attorneys involved in the Zarrab case of having links to the Gulen movement.
Turkey has long-standing links to organised crime and trafficking networks across the Balkans and southeast Europe. Despite being recognised as an independent state in 2008, Kosovo has become a centre of illicit networks, whilst also benefiting from close ties to Turkey.