Free Article
Etihad’s financial woes may complicate life for Air Serbia, with the Serbian government particularly placed in a precarious position if the Gulf airline withdraws from this venture. Facing additional pressure from regional low-cost carriers, the one airline that may eventually come out on top to dominate the regional aviation sector may be Lufthansa – but it may not risk doing so directly.
The failure of the Cyprus peace talks will have a direct impact on the development of the country’s gas market. Given the geographic location of Cyprus, and ongoing territorial disputes, its politics are colouring commercial negotiations in the gas sector, including those surrounding the Israeli Leviathan basin. This is inevitably creating an insecure investment environment.
Free Article
Nigeria has become one of Turkey’s most important providers of liquid natural gas (LNG), and with the LNG industry in both countries gaining increasing prominence, LNG trade between the two is likely to continue into the foreseeable future.
Turkey’s President Erdoğan is building his “New Turkey” – a country more empowered and autonomous. Part of his strategy involves exerting influence over the defence industry; but this is also proving beneficial to patron-client relations and resource distribution; i.e. a new pool of assets that can be channelled to loyal businessmen.
Despite on-going reforms in the Serbian energy sector, including reforms at state-owned EPS, the political situation in Serbia does not herald the emergence of a more transparent and liberalised energy market. EPS remains a resource distribution tool, with indications that President Vučić will likely seek to exert more control over it.
Free Article
Greece is under pressure to embark on a privatisation programme to help feed financial stability. Despite rhetoric that the country is committed to a privatisation programme, the Greek government is showing signs of hesitation. With investment opportunities to be had, risks still abound for those that do not have the time or patience to navigate negotiations.
Although Romania has been an EU member for 10 years, the degree of transparency and privatisation of its energy sector fall well below expected EU standards. As a result, Romania’s energy sector remains largely opaque and politically exposed.
Central Asia has acted as a region through which Turkey has sought to channel its soft power, namely through the Gülen Movement. However, because of the AKP-Gülen split, Turkey’s involvement in Central Asia is in decline.
Free Article
The energy sector in Turkey not only plays a vital economic role, but it is also a tool for political interests. The overwhelming influence of the state in this sector has allowed the government to utilise it to reinforce the loyalty of its surrounding informal networks.
Russia is utilising its shared ethno-religious background to leverage Serbia’s current period of self-reflection, and uncertainty regarding with whom (i.e. East or West) its future stands to prosper.
Reconstruction in Turkey and northern Syria are becoming potential investment opportunities for the AKP-controlled public housing institution, TOKİ. These construction projects, that could be partly financed by the EU, will also inevitably benefit Erdogan’s ‘constructocracy’.
The AKP has bet on gold exploitation and commercialization to avoid an oncoming banking crisis. Turkey currently is the 4th world consumer of gold.