Part I and III of this series, published on 03 January and 10 January, reviewed the delayed elections in the DRC and South Sudan; and assessed the elections that are scheduled over the coming 12 months – outlining potential outcomes, the key political players, and the methods through which incumbents will attempt to retain power in the face of increasing competition from strengthening opposition groups.

… And into 2019
This third and final part of our election-focused outlook for 2018, looks further into the future as campaigning begins in earnest ahead of elections in two of Africa’s biggest countries.

While elections in both Nigeria and South Africa are not scheduled until 2019, all eyes will be on the two regional powers throughout 2018 as political candidates vie for the support of both the public and their respective parties.

Impact Points

  • As President Muhammadu Buhari continues to refrain from announcing his candidacy for Nigeria’s 2019 election, factional infighting within the ruling party will escalate as various high-profile candidates begin to subtly vie for the candidacy of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
  • South Africa may well witness a change in leadership in 2018 – before the scheduled elections in 2019 – following the African National Congress’s (ANC) decision to elect Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ruling party.
  • A fierce anti-corruption campaigner and vocal critic of President Jacob Zuma, Ramaphosa is likely to seek to remove Zuma as President in the first months of 2018.